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  • 1.  Solar is not that far off on price, at least in Germany, India and China

    Posted 02-14-2010 10:39
    Jon,
    Germany, China and India are making huge investments in solar. Solar PV power is expected to reach grid parity of 24 EuCent per kWh in 2 to 4 years in Germany.  Indian solar projects completed before Dec 2009 had tarriffs of InRs 12 to 15 (US$0.24 to 0.30) per kWh.  China expects grid price parity in 3 years.  In each country, solar is reaching 8% to 10% of installed  generation capacity. China is shooting for 20% by 2020. India is invested in 1000MW by 2017, more coming every month.

    So, my basic points, 1.  a long transition time may be true in USA, certainly not in these solar leading countries.  2.  "Price" based arguments about feasibility of solar are becoming increasingly untenable, because so much of the price of oil, gas, is based on subsidies and depreciation rules.  

    Paul

    On Feb 14, 2010, at 12:00 AM, ONE-L automatic digest system wrote:

    From:    Jon Entine <jon@JONENTINE.COM>
    Subject: Why Bill Gates knows what he's talking about...

    In theory, you're correct...except that "truly clean, safe approaches  
    such as solar, wind and tidal energy sources" are not economically  
    feasible now, and there is no indication that they will be for many  
    decades, and may never be when compared to fossil fuels. That's not to  
    say we as a society should not absorb some of the expenses because of  
    the externalities attached to fossil fuels, but you can darn well be  
    assured that the economic/financial pressures will limit the  
    transition for decades, and it will be a choice of the mostly affluent  
    west to give up on fossil fuels. China and India and Russia won't do  
    it (though China in particular is aggressively pursuing cleaner  
    energy, because it is placing bets everywhere).




  • 2.  Solar is not that far off on price, at least in Germany, India and China

    Posted 02-14-2010 10:57
    Paul, I absolutely agree, but as I think you'd agree to, solar is a complementary energy source, not a replacement source. It's not an either or. We should be pursuing all kinds of energy options and alternatives, but fossil fuels will remain, for a host of economic, energy, and political reasons the largest player for the next century or more....hopefully dramatically decreasing its footprint as technology and costs improve. That's certainly China's approach, and even Germany's....place multiple bets, and fund them and/or set up tax incentives to entice private investments. But then means nuclear is a key part of the mix as well, and new facilities have proved to be cost competitive. Are their challenges? Sure. And no energy policy should get a free pass, ideological otherwise. But it's always about choice, and none of us are wise enough to predict the future. The one good thing that has happened in the US over the past 5-10 years, as acknowledgement of climate change has finally sunk in (except for right wing kooks) is that we have to drop old prejudices and address these challenges realistically in both long term and short.

    You might find my latest article on this, on climate change policy in the US, of some interest...it's in a special post-Copenhagen issue of Ethical Corporation: http://www.ethicalcorp.com/content.asp?ContentID=6768

    ESG MediaMetrics
    Ethical Corporation
    American Enterprise Institute

    www.jonentine.com | 513.319.8388


    -----Original Message-----
    From: Paul Shrivastava [mailto:paul.shri@GMAIL.COM]
    Sent: Sunday, February 14, 2010 10:38 AM
    To: ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
    Subject: Solar is not that far off on price, at least in Germany, India and China

    > Jon,
    > Germany, China and India are making huge investments in solar. Solar
    > PV power is expected to reach grid parity of 24 EuCent per kWh in 2
    > to 4 years in Germany. Indian solar projects completed before Dec
    > 2009 had tarriffs of InRs 12 to 15 (US$0.24 to 0.30) per kWh. China
    > expects grid price parity in 3 years. In each country, solar is
    > reaching 8% to 10% of installed generation capacity. China is
    > shooting for 20% by 2020. India is invested in 1000MW by 2017, more
    > coming every month.
    >
    > So, my basic points, 1. a long transition time may be true in USA,
    > certainly not in these solar leading countries. 2. "Price" based
    > arguments about feasibility of solar are becoming increasingly
    > untenable, because so much of the price of oil, gas, is based on
    > subsidies and depreciation rules.
    >
    > Paul
    >
    > On Feb 14, 2010, at 12:00 AM, ONE-L automatic digest system wrote:
    >
    >> From: Jon Entine <jon@JONENTINE.COM>
    >> Subject: Why Bill Gates knows what he's talking about...
    >>
    >> In theory, you're correct...except that "truly clean, safe approaches
    >> such as solar, wind and tidal energy sources" are not economically
    >> feasible now, and there is no indication that they will be for many
    >> decades, and may never be when compared to fossil fuels. That's not
    >> to
    >> say we as a society should not absorb some of the expenses because of
    >> the externalities attached to fossil fuels, but you can darn well be
    >> assured that the economic/financial pressures will limit the
    >> transition for decades, and it will be a choice of the mostly
    >> affluent
    >> west to give up on fossil fuels. China and India and Russia won't do
    >> it (though China in particular is aggressively pursuing cleaner
    >> energy, because it is placing bets everywhere).
    >