View Thread

Tell me a story...

  • 1.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-08-2010 14:47

    It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.  C02 didn't double.  Less than 5% of world species went extinct.  No world war or pandemic occurred.  Energy consumption and human population levels are falling gradually.  On average, human "happiness" is high. 

     

    How did it happen?

     

    A



  • 2.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-08-2010 18:49

    Haha I liked it

    Many things happened. Weather related disasters forced governments to divert the attention from funding military actions to provide emergency relief. Also these disasters forced spontaneous collaboration, the kind of you don't really like your neighbor but when there is a fire, you go and get his child from inside the house.

    Big losses made us collectively more humble, and the empathy for suffering drove actions, which made us feel so much better that we paused to see what actually happened- are we better than we thought?

    This multiplied the emergence of moments thinking on what really matters, the kind of what we do when hit with the unexpected.

    Then we couldn't go back to business as usual.

    The youngest pushed the older towards a more honest, true to yourself behavior, and also hit the guilt button: all this mess, who created it anyway? Not us, the ones born in 2010!

    What we used to try to teach and instill with difficulty – how to think long term, see the interconnectedness, be collaborative – came naturally – because of the emergencies taught us dramatically.

     

    So that's my movie. What does yours look like?

    Isabel

     

    Isabel Rimanoczy

    Global Virtual Faculty

    Fairleigh Dickinson University

     

     

     

    From: Organizations and the Natural Environment Discussion [mailto:ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU] On Behalf Of King, Andrew A.
    Sent: Thursday, July 08, 2010 2:47 PM
    To: ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
    Subject: Tell me a story...

     

    It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.  C02 didn't double.  Less than 5% of world species went extinct.  No world war or pandemic occurred.  Energy consumption and human population levels are falling gradually.  On average, human "happiness" is high. 

     

    How did it happen?

     

    A

    No virus found in this incoming message.
    Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
    Version: 9.0.830 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/2986 - Release Date: 07/08/10 02:36:00



  • 3.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-08-2010 18:51
    take a look at Tellus Institute Homepage for good scenarios.

    On Thu, Jul 8, 2010 at 1:47 PM, King, Andrew A. <Andrew.A.King@tuck.dartmouth.edu> wrote:

    It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.  C02 didn't double.  Less than 5% of world species went extinct.  No world war or pandemic occurred.  Energy consumption and human population levels are falling gradually.  On average, human "happiness" is high. 

     

    How did it happen?

     

    A




    --
    Alfred A. Marcus
    Professor and Spencer Chair in Strategy and Technological Leadership
    University of Minnesota
    Carlson School of Management
    Strategic Management and Organization Department
    Minneapolis, MN. 55455 USA
    612 624 2812
    amarcus@umn.edu



  • 4.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-08-2010 20:17
    Ok, I'll take the bait and describe a different movie. In my movie positive environmental change is produced by technological change, which is produced from institutional change, which follows from political change, which follows from conflict between those who are moved by and lose from environmental disasters and those who defend the status quo. In wealthy countries life styles on balance are more modest than now, but in poorer countries consumption is much greater than today's levels. People are happier but still mostly define happiness in terms of stuff. CSR makes almost no difference and in fact slows real change by creating the illusion that real change is not necessary. Film noir with a happy ending.


    From: Organizations and the Natural Environment Discussion on behalf of isabel rimanoczy
    Sent: Thu 7/8/2010 3:48 PM
    To: ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
    Subject: Re: Tell me a story...

    Haha I liked it

    Many things happened. Weather related disasters forced governments to divert the attention from funding military actions to provide emergency relief. Also these disasters forced spontaneous collaboration, the kind of you don't really like your neighbor but when there is a fire, you go and get his child from inside the house.

    Big losses made us collectively more humble, and the empathy for suffering drove actions, which made us feel so much better that we paused to see what actually happened- are we better than we thought?

    This multiplied the emergence of moments thinking on what really matters, the kind of what we do when hit with the unexpected.

    Then we couldn't go back to business as usual.

    The youngest pushed the older towards a more honest, true to yourself behavior, and also hit the guilt button: all this mess, who created it anyway? Not us, the ones born in 2010!

    What we used to try to teach and instill with difficulty – how to think long term, see the interconnectedness, be collaborative – came naturally – because of the emergencies taught us dramatically.

     

    So that's my movie. What does yours look like?

    Isabel

     

    Isabel Rimanoczy

    Global Virtual Faculty

    Fairleigh Dickinson University

     

     

     

    From: Organizations and the Natural Environment Discussion [mailto:ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU] On Behalf Of King, Andrew A.
    Sent: Thursday, July 08, 2010 2:47 PM
    To: ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
    Subject: Tell me a story...

     

    It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.  C02 didn't double.  Less than 5% of world species went extinct.  No world war or pandemic occurred.  Energy consumption and human population levels are falling gradually.  On average, human "happiness" is high. 

     

    How did it happen?

     

    A

    No virus found in this incoming message.
    Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
    Version: 9.0.830 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/2986 - Release Date: 07/08/10 02:36:00



  • 5.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-09-2010 05:15

    Colleagues,

    Here's my contribution. I was part of the team that developed these scenarios, and will bring some hard copies (booklet) to Montreal. Although nominally about the financial crisis rather than the ecological or societal crisis, the 'Health' scenario especially sees these as part of a larger whole.

     

    http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/centres/insis/projects/Pages/financial-scenarios.aspx

     

    John

     

    -.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-

    Dr. John W. Selsky

    Associate Professor, Management

    College of Technology & Innovation

    University of South Florida Polytechnic

    3433 Winter Lake Road

    Lakeland, FL 33803  USA

    +1-863-667-7718; fax +1-863-667-7751

    jselsky@poly.usf.edu

    Associate Fellow, Institute for Science, Innovation & Society

    University of Oxford     www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/centres/insis/

    -.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-

     

    From: Organizations and the Natural Environment Discussion [mailto:ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU] On Behalf Of Timothy Hargrave
    Sent: Thursday, July 08, 2010 8:17 PM
    To: ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
    Subject: Re: Tell me a story...

     

    Ok, I'll take the bait and describe a different movie. In my movie positive environmental change is produced by technological change, which is produced from institutional change, which follows from political change, which follows from conflict between those who are moved by and lose from environmental disasters and those who defend the status quo. In wealthy countries life styles on balance are more modest than now, but in poorer countries consumption is much greater than today's levels. People are happier but still mostly define happiness in terms of stuff. CSR makes almost no difference and in fact slows real change by creating the illusion that real change is not necessary. Film noir with a happy ending.

     


    From: Organizations and the Natural Environment Discussion on behalf of isabel rimanoczy
    Sent: Thu 7/8/2010 3:48 PM
    To: ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
    Subject: Re: Tell me a story...

    Haha I liked it

    Many things happened. Weather related disasters forced governments to divert the attention from funding military actions to provide emergency relief. Also these disasters forced spontaneous collaboration, the kind of you don't really like your neighbor but when there is a fire, you go and get his child from inside the house.

    Big losses made us collectively more humble, and the empathy for suffering drove actions, which made us feel so much better that we paused to see what actually happened- are we better than we thought?

    This multiplied the emergence of moments thinking on what really matters, the kind of what we do when hit with the unexpected.

    Then we couldn't go back to business as usual.

    The youngest pushed the older towards a more honest, true to yourself behavior, and also hit the guilt button: all this mess, who created it anyway? Not us, the ones born in 2010!

    What we used to try to teach and instill with difficulty – how to think long term, see the interconnectedness, be collaborative – came naturally – because of the emergencies taught us dramatically.

     

    So that's my movie. What does yours look like?

    Isabel

     

    Isabel Rimanoczy

    Global Virtual Faculty

    Fairleigh Dickinson University

     

     

     

    From: Organizations and the Natural Environment Discussion [mailto:ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU] On Behalf Of King, Andrew A.
    Sent: Thursday, July 08, 2010 2:47 PM
    To: ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
    Subject: Tell me a story...

     

    It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.  C02 didn't double.  Less than 5% of world species went extinct.  No world war or pandemic occurred.  Energy consumption and human population levels are falling gradually.  On average, human "happiness" is high. 

     

    How did it happen?

     

    A

    No virus found in this incoming message.
    Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
    Version: 9.0.830 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/2986 - Release Date: 07/08/10 02:36:00



  • 6.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-09-2010 10:31

    Here is what the back of my envelope reads.  Feel free to post the odds of each happening.

     

    1.  The U.S. makes significant changes to its tax policies.  In particular, there is a shift toward consumption based taxes with the amount of the tax being determined by environmental impact.  Even more specifically, this would likely mean a federal sales tax based on carbon footprint.

    2.  China slowly and steadily increases its citizens' political freedom.

    3.  India – I am a bit stumped here.  Perhaps they increase their citizens' economic freedom?

    4.  Russia finds a way to institute the rule of law.

    5.  Brazil finds a way to safeguard its natural resources.

    6.  Clay Shirky turns out to be correct and people crowdsource to create and implement solutions to major social problems.

     

    -Frank Montabon

     

     

    On Thu, Jul 8, 2010 at 1:47 PM, King, Andrew A. <Andrew.A.King@tuck.dartmouth.edu> wrote:

    It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.  C02 didn't double.  Less than 5% of world species went extinct.  No world war or pandemic occurred.  Energy consumption and human population levels are falling gradually.  On average, human "happiness" is high. 

    How did it happen?

    A

    --
    Alfred A. Marcus
    Professor and Spencer Chair in Strategy and Technological Leadership
    University of Minnesota
    Carlson School of Management
    Strategic Management and Organization Department
    Minneapolis, MN. 55455 USA
    612 624 2812
    amarcus@umn.edu



  • 7.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-09-2010 11:06
    The IPCC also develops lots of different scenarios so that it can forecast future GHG emissions levels.
     
    By the way, I want to thank Andy for posing his provocative question.
     
    Tim


    From: Organizations and the Natural Environment Discussion on behalf of Alfred Marcus
    Sent: Thu 7/8/2010 3:50 PM
    To: ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
    Subject: Re: Tell me a story...

    take a look at Tellus Institute Homepage for good scenarios.

    On Thu, Jul 8, 2010 at 1:47 PM, King, Andrew A. <Andrew.A.King@tuck.dartmouth.edu> wrote:

    It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.  C02 didn't double.  Less than 5% of world species went extinct.  No world war or pandemic occurred.  Energy consumption and human population levels are falling gradually.  On average, human "happiness" is high. 

     

    How did it happen?

     

    A




    --
    Alfred A. Marcus
    Professor and Spencer Chair in Strategy and Technological Leadership
    University of Minnesota
    Carlson School of Management
    Strategic Management and Organization Department
    Minneapolis, MN. 55455 USA
    612 624 2812
    amarcus@umn.edu



  • 8.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-09-2010 12:33

    It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.  C02 didn't double.  Less than 5% of world species went extinct.  No world war or pandemic occurred.  Energy consumption and human population levels are falling gradually.  On average, human "happiness" is high. 

     

    How did it happen?

     

    A

     

     

    A little dystopic, but here goes:

     

    CO2

    It didn't double, but it almost did. Weather patterns change, and extreme events become much more common. The developed world is more shocked by this and its people move back a little from the coasts; people in developing countries can't really see a difference in the disasters compared to what they suffered before. Oil prices continue to rise, interrupted by bouts of volatility, and the price finally aligns incentives for sustained clean tech development and energy conservation. Europe takes the lead in becoming carbon neutral (mostly through nuclear power as other clean tech can't shoulder the entire burden yet) and by 2050 is deploying technology/policy to become a carbon sink. China stops its  coal burning and goes mostly nuclear primarily in response to oil prices, but also to localized environmental disasters and degradation. The rest of the world buys smaller cars, more efficient air conditioners, etc. in response to high energy prices. Most cars are electric or hydrogen based but their numbers plateau as traffic jams across the globe become like those in Nairobi and Sao Paulo.  The US regains its position (lost for a while to China) as prime CO2 emitter; the country cannot implement meaningful energy reform until a second Katrina hits Miami and the president seizes the opportunity to declare "War on GHGs" – by 2060 the US is still not carbon neutral but Gore is canonized.

     

    Species extinction

    The rate of discoveries of new species is higher than that of known extinctions – but most new-to-science species are arthropods, fungi and bacteria. Higher order species, and apex predators in particular, show previously unheard of rates of extinction. Polar bears as well as all the great cats except Felis concolor are now found only in zoos and reserves. Africa's human population finally manages to fatally disrupt its ecoregions such as the Serengeti Plain, Rift Valley Lakes, and Okavango Delta. The Sahara keeps up eating the Sahel. Wild spaces in the US expand as the price of fertilizer rises and agricultural subsidies are gradually reduced. The Amazon, on the contrary continues to be converted to cropland as demand for soybean, corn, sugar cane biomass, etc. continue and northern countries cut production in response to high input prices, erratic weather, and short growing seasons.

    The bluefin tuna goes extinct, and 95% of existing ocean fisheries collapse – most of them beyond recovery. Seafood consumption is maintained at a much lower level via aquaculture, but the species consumed tend to be lower on the food chain.

     

    Consumption

    World income and consumption continues to rise, but the digital revolution drastically reduces its energy and material intensity. With rising incomes, lack of space, and increased education levels, ever-increasing proportions of the income are spent on "content", "experiences", and "services" (see smartphones for example). The poor in developing countries show "unnatural", non-Maslovian consumption patterns, as eager as their richer counterparts for certain entertainment services and digital technologies yet still living in enormous, crowded, dangerous, unhygienic shantytowns. Land use patterns and transportation networks in North America gradually start to shift towards the densities and clustering found elsewhere – Americans come to realize that large private lawns are simply wrong, and that lawn mowing  is not therapeutic.

     

    Happiness

    Most peoples' baseline happiness levels continue to be dictated mainly by cultural and social cohesion issues, with small "healthy, wealthy, and wise" countries performing the best. Areas of the world that manage to become peacefully regionalized, educated, and homogenized show bumps in happiness while persistent extreme poverty in Africa, and sunless winters in Russia keep the happiness index from heading higher. Continued migration to the large and wealthy countries, while spurring their economies, postpones their social integration and depresses their potential happiness.

    The development of a new soma, free of side-effects, enables the rich to achieve permanent medicated bliss, thus buoying the average.

    Marihuana gradually becomes legalized and mainstream across the US, organizational sociologists study in real time the emergence and definition of a new industry/institution.

    China wins the 2060 World Cup thus momentarily boosting a quarter of the world's population's happiness level.

     

    Saludos,

     

    Duncan Duke

     

    Duncan Duke | johnson school | cornell university | dod3@cornell.edu | 607.216.8550

     

     

     

     



  • 9.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-10-2010 09:16
    Thankfully, some of these stories seem plausible, especially Duncan's.

    What still worries me, however, is that although many people mention more extreme weather patterns, no one has taken into account 'tipping points' that rapidly plunge the world into a completely different climate. Are we just assuming in these scenarios that we never reach a 'tipping point'?

    On a related theme, I asked in another thread if anyone has any environmental or social indicators that are pointing towards sustainability and helping to shift towards the scenario originally created by Andrew

    The answer when i first posed this was a resounding silence - and it may have got lost in the rest of my comment  - so I'd like to pose it again

    DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY EVIDENCE OF CURRENT GLOBALLY POSITIVE ENVIRONMENTAL OR SOCIAL INDICATORS?

    regards

    Dr Paul Roberts
    Profesor Honorífico, Universidad de Guadalajara

    http://livingandworkinginmexico.wordpress.com/

    tel: +52 (341) 412 6940
    cel: +52 (341) 102 0774

    On 9 July 2010 11:33, Duncan Duke <dod3@cornell.edu> wrote:

    It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.  C02 didn't double.  Less than 5% of world species went extinct.  No world war or pandemic occurred.  Energy consumption and human population levels are falling gradually.  On average, human "happiness" is high. 

     

    How did it happen?

     

    A

     

     

    A little dystopic, but here goes:

     

    CO2

    It didn't double, but it almost did. Weather patterns change, and extreme events become much more common. The developed world is more shocked by this and its people move back a little from the coasts; people in developing countries can't really see a difference in the disasters compared to what they suffered before. Oil prices continue to rise, interrupted by bouts of volatility, and the price finally aligns incentives for sustained clean tech development and energy conservation. Europe takes the lead in becoming carbon neutral (mostly through nuclear power as other clean tech can't shoulder the entire burden yet) and by 2050 is deploying technology/policy to become a carbon sink. China stops its  coal burning and goes mostly nuclear primarily in response to oil prices, but also to localized environmental disasters and degradation. The rest of the world buys smaller cars, more efficient air conditioners, etc. in response to high energy prices. Most cars are electric or hydrogen based but their numbers plateau as traffic jams across the globe become like those in Nairobi and Sao Paulo.  The US regains its position (lost for a while to China) as prime CO2 emitter; the country cannot implement meaningful energy reform until a second Katrina hits Miami and the president seizes the opportunity to declare "War on GHGs" – by 2060 the US is still not carbon neutral but Gore is canonized.

     

    Species extinction

    The rate of discoveries of new species is higher than that of known extinctions – but most new-to-science species are arthropods, fungi and bacteria. Higher order species, and apex predators in particular, show previously unheard of rates of extinction. Polar bears as well as all the great cats except Felis concolor are now found only in zoos and reserves. Africa's human population finally manages to fatally disrupt its ecoregions such as the Serengeti Plain, Rift Valley Lakes, and Okavango Delta. The Sahara keeps up eating the Sahel. Wild spaces in the US expand as the price of fertilizer rises and agricultural subsidies are gradually reduced. The Amazon, on the contrary continues to be converted to cropland as demand for soybean, corn, sugar cane biomass, etc. continue and northern countries cut production in response to high input prices, erratic weather, and short growing seasons.

    The bluefin tuna goes extinct, and 95% of existing ocean fisheries collapse – most of them beyond recovery. Seafood consumption is maintained at a much lower level via aquaculture, but the species consumed tend to be lower on the food chain.

     

    Consumption

    World income and consumption continues to rise, but the digital revolution drastically reduces its energy and material intensity. With rising incomes, lack of space, and increased education levels, ever-increasing proportions of the income are spent on "content", "experiences", and "services" (see smartphones for example). The poor in developing countries show "unnatural", non-Maslovian consumption patterns, as eager as their richer counterparts for certain entertainment services and digital technologies yet still living in enormous, crowded, dangerous, unhygienic shantytowns. Land use patterns and transportation networks in North America gradually start to shift towards the densities and clustering found elsewhere – Americans come to realize that large private lawns are simply wrong, and that lawn mowing  is not therapeutic.

     

    Happiness

    Most peoples' baseline happiness levels continue to be dictated mainly by cultural and social cohesion issues, with small "healthy, wealthy, and wise" countries performing the best. Areas of the world that manage to become peacefully regionalized, educated, and homogenized show bumps in happiness while persistent extreme poverty in Africa, and sunless winters in Russia keep the happiness index from heading higher. Continued migration to the large and wealthy countries, while spurring their economies, postpones their social integration and depresses their potential happiness.

    The development of a new soma, free of side-effects, enables the rich to achieve permanent medicated bliss, thus buoying the average.

    Marihuana gradually becomes legalized and mainstream across the US, organizational sociologists study in real time the emergence and definition of a new industry/institution.

    China wins the 2060 World Cup thus momentarily boosting a quarter of the world's population's happiness level.

     

    Saludos,

     

    Duncan Duke

     

    Duncan Duke | johnson school | cornell university | dod3@cornell.edu | 607.216.8550

     

     

     

     




    --
    Education is Not the Filling of a Pail, but the Lighting of a Fire (William Butler Yeats)

    http://livingandworkinginmexico.wordpress.com/

    Dr Paul Roberts
    Calle Independencia #32-2
    Ciudad Guzmán
    Jalisco
    México
    C.P. 49000

    tel: +52 (341) 412 6940
    cel: +52 (341) 102 0774






  • 10.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-10-2010 09:56

    Hi Paul

    What I liked about the challenging question posed initially is that we start from a end-scenario that we like, (2060 – happy people on the planet) and we are invited to say what made this possible. What I liked is that I realized we spend a lot of time pointing at what is not working, what is getting worse, and making projections of how bad things can get, and comparatively little time is spent on saying OK, so what is it that we want to see, and what can we do to make it true?

    Strange, since all strategies are also built on a scenario that we want to achieve! How would we achieve it, if we don't even visualize it??

    So thanks Paul for picking up this other lost-question you posed, what evidence is there that something is changing (positively)?

    I have a few to share

    ·         Increasing level of awareness of how bad things are and how we are all individually contributing – therefore first step to possible change of habits

    ·         Virtual cycle: the opposite of the vicious cycle. The more organizations start to have conversations about their footprint, the more their competitors realize they cannot NOT do the same. Whether it starts as a PR or superficlal action, I don't mind. It started and once launched cannot be stopped.

    ·         Expansion of consciousness: we're talking spirituality at the AOM! How is that for a change? Spirituality at the workplace, ethics in our decisions, workshops to seek for purpose. I am fascinated with the volume of emails I get that invite to courses, seminars dealing with expanding our consciousness. And it's not all US American – I read postings in blogs from Latin America, You Tubes that get forwarded that point at the higher values of our life, TED clips from powerful inspirational speakers.

    ·         The grassroots movement: Paul Hawken thought he would find a couple hundred thousand grassroots org, instead it was past the million. And counting.

     

    Dr. Isabel Rimanoczy

    Global Virtual Faculty

    Fairleigh Dickinson University

     

    Check out how Women are Changing the World www.minervas.org

     

     

    From: Organizations and the Natural Environment Discussion [mailto:ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU] On Behalf Of Paul Roberts
    Sent: Saturday, July 10, 2010 9:16 AM
    To: ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
    Subject: Re: Tell me a story...

     

    Thankfully, some of these stories seem plausible, especially Duncan's.

    What still worries me, however, is that although many people mention more extreme weather patterns, no one has taken into account 'tipping points' that rapidly plunge the world into a completely different climate. Are we just assuming in these scenarios that we never reach a 'tipping point'?

    On a related theme, I asked in another thread if anyone has any environmental or social indicators that are pointing towards sustainability and helping to shift towards the scenario originally created by Andrew

    The answer when i first posed this was a resounding silence - and it may have got lost in the rest of my comment  - so I'd like to pose it again

    DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY EVIDENCE OF CURRENT GLOBALLY POSITIVE ENVIRONMENTAL OR SOCIAL INDICATORS?

    regards

    Dr Paul Roberts
    Profesor Honorífico, Universidad de Guadalajara

    http://livingandworkinginmexico.wordpress.com/

    tel: +52 (341) 412 6940
    cel: +52 (341) 102 0774

    On 9 July 2010 11:33, Duncan Duke <dod3@cornell.edu> wrote:

    It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.  C02 didn't double.  Less than 5% of world species went extinct.  No world war or pandemic occurred.  Energy consumption and human population levels are falling gradually.  On average, human "happiness" is high. 

     

    How did it happen?

     

    A

     

     

    A little dystopic, but here goes:

     

    CO2

    It didn't double, but it almost did. Weather patterns change, and extreme events become much more common. The developed world is more shocked by this and its people move back a little from the coasts; people in developing countries can't really see a difference in the disasters compared to what they suffered before. Oil prices continue to rise, interrupted by bouts of volatility, and the price finally aligns incentives for sustained clean tech development and energy conservation. Europe takes the lead in becoming carbon neutral (mostly through nuclear power as other clean tech can't shoulder the entire burden yet) and by 2050 is deploying technology/policy to become a carbon sink. China stops its  coal burning and goes mostly nuclear primarily in response to oil prices, but also to localized environmental disasters and degradation. The rest of the world buys smaller cars, more efficient air conditioners, etc. in response to high energy prices. Most cars are electric or hydrogen based but their numbers plateau as traffic jams across the globe become like those in Nairobi and Sao Paulo.  The US regains its position (lost for a while to China) as prime CO2 emitter; the country cannot implement meaningful energy reform until a second Katrina hits Miami and the president seizes the opportunity to declare "War on GHGs" – by 2060 the US is still not carbon neutral but Gore is canonized.

     

    Species extinction

    The rate of discoveries of new species is higher than that of known extinctions – but most new-to-science species are arthropods, fungi and bacteria. Higher order species, and apex predators in particular, show previously unheard of rates of extinction. Polar bears as well as all the great cats except Felis concolor are now found only in zoos and reserves. Africa's human population finally manages to fatally disrupt its ecoregions such as the Serengeti Plain, Rift Valley Lakes, and Okavango Delta. The Sahara keeps up eating the Sahel. Wild spaces in the US expand as the price of fertilizer rises and agricultural subsidies are gradually reduced. The Amazon, on the contrary continues to be converted to cropland as demand for soybean, corn, sugar cane biomass, etc. continue and northern countries cut production in response to high input prices, erratic weather, and short growing seasons.

    The bluefin tuna goes extinct, and 95% of existing ocean fisheries collapse – most of them beyond recovery. Seafood consumption is maintained at a much lower level via aquaculture, but the species consumed tend to be lower on the food chain.

     

    Consumption

    World income and consumption continues to rise, but the digital revolution drastically reduces its energy and material intensity. With rising incomes, lack of space, and increased education levels, ever-increasing proportions of the income are spent on "content", "experiences", and "services" (see smartphones for example). The poor in developing countries show "unnatural", non-Maslovian consumption patterns, as eager as their richer counterparts for certain entertainment services and digital technologies yet still living in enormous, crowded, dangerous, unhygienic shantytowns. Land use patterns and transportation networks in North America gradually start to shift towards the densities and clustering found elsewhere – Americans come to realize that large private lawns are simply wrong, and that lawn mowing  is not therapeutic.

     

    Happiness

    Most peoples' baseline happiness levels continue to be dictated mainly by cultural and social cohesion issues, with small "healthy, wealthy, and wise" countries performing the best. Areas of the world that manage to become peacefully regionalized, educated, and homogenized show bumps in happiness while persistent extreme poverty in Africa, and sunless winters in Russia keep the happiness index from heading higher. Continued migration to the large and wealthy countries, while spurring their economies, postpones their social integration and depresses their potential happiness.

    The development of a new soma, free of side-effects, enables the rich to achieve permanent medicated bliss, thus buoying the average.

    Marihuana gradually becomes legalized and mainstream across the US, organizational sociologists study in real time the emergence and definition of a new industry/institution.

    China wins the 2060 World Cup thus momentarily boosting a quarter of the world's population's happiness level.

     

    Saludos,

     

    Duncan Duke

     

    Duncan Duke | johnson school | cornell university | dod3@cornell.edu | 607.216.8550

     

     

     

     




    --
    Education is Not the Filling of a Pail, but the Lighting of a Fire (William Butler Yeats)

    http://livingandworkinginmexico.wordpress.com/

    Dr Paul Roberts
    Calle Independencia #32-2
    Ciudad Guzmán
    Jalisco
    México
    C.P. 49000

    tel: +52 (341) 412 6940
    cel: +52 (341) 102 0774



    No virus found in this incoming message.
    Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
    Version: 9.0.830 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/2986 - Release Date: 07/09/10 14:36:00



  • 11.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-10-2010 23:05
    For those interested in stories about the future take a look at my book Strategic Foresight
    A New Look at Scenarios


    On Fri, Jul 9, 2010 at 9:30 AM, Montabon, Frank L [SCIS] <montabon@iastate.edu> wrote:

    Here is what the back of my envelope reads.  Feel free to post the odds of each happening.

     

    1.  The U.S. makes significant changes to its tax policies.  In particular, there is a shift toward consumption based taxes with the amount of the tax being determined by environmental impact.  Even more specifically, this would likely mean a federal sales tax based on carbon footprint.

    2.  China slowly and steadily increases its citizens' political freedom.

    3.  India – I am a bit stumped here.  Perhaps they increase their citizens' economic freedom?

    4.  Russia finds a way to institute the rule of law.

    5.  Brazil finds a way to safeguard its natural resources.

    6.  Clay Shirky turns out to be correct and people crowdsource to create and implement solutions to major social problems.

     

    -Frank Montabon

     

     

    On Thu, Jul 8, 2010 at 1:47 PM, King, Andrew A. <Andrew.A.King@tuck.dartmouth.edu> wrote:

    It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.  C02 didn't double.  Less than 5% of world species went extinct.  No world war or pandemic occurred.  Energy consumption and human population levels are falling gradually.  On average, human "happiness" is high. 

    How did it happen?

    A

    --
    Alfred A. Marcus
    Professor and Spencer Chair in Strategy and Technological Leadership
    University of Minnesota
    Carlson School of Management
    Strategic Management and Organization Department
    Minneapolis, MN. 55455 USA
    612 624 2812
    amarcus@umn.edu




    --
    Alfred A. Marcus
    Professor and Spencer Chair in Strategy and Technological Leadership
    University of Minnesota
    Carlson School of Management
    Strategic Management and Organization Department
    Minneapolis, MN. 55455 USA
    612 624 2812
    amarcus@umn.edu
     


  • 12.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-11-2010 12:20

    Alfie,

     

    Can you give us a bit of a teaser?  What did you find interesting?

     

    A

     

    From: Organizations and the Natural Environment Discussion [mailto:ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU] On Behalf Of Alfred Marcus
    Sent: Saturday, July 10, 2010 11:05 PM
    To: ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
    Subject: Re: Tell me a story...

     

    For those interested in stories about the future take a look at my book Strategic Foresight
    Strategic Foresight

    A New Look at Scenarios


    Palgrave Macmillan, June 2009
    ISBN: 978-0-230-61172-6, ISBN10: 0-230-61172-9,
    6 1/8 x 9-1/4 inches, 228 pages,

     

    On Fri, Jul 9, 2010 at 9:30 AM, Montabon, Frank L [SCIS] <montabon@iastate.edu> wrote:

    Here is what the back of my envelope reads.  Feel free to post the odds of each happening.

     

    1.  The U.S. makes significant changes to its tax policies.  In particular, there is a shift toward consumption based taxes with the amount of the tax being determined by environmental impact.  Even more specifically, this would likely mean a federal sales tax based on carbon footprint.

    2.  China slowly and steadily increases its citizens' political freedom.

    3.  India – I am a bit stumped here.  Perhaps they increase their citizens' economic freedom?

    4.  Russia finds a way to institute the rule of law.

    5.  Brazil finds a way to safeguard its natural resources.

    6.  Clay Shirky turns out to be correct and people crowdsource to create and implement solutions to major social problems.

     

    -Frank Montabon

     

     

    On Thu, Jul 8, 2010 at 1:47 PM, King, Andrew A. <Andrew.A.King@tuck.dartmouth.edu> wrote:

    It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.  C02 didn't double.  Less than 5% of world species went extinct.  No world war or pandemic occurred.  Energy consumption and human population levels are falling gradually.  On average, human "happiness" is high. 

    How did it happen?

    A

    --
    Alfred A. Marcus
    Professor and Spencer Chair in Strategy and Technological Leadership
    University of Minnesota
    Carlson School of Management
    Strategic Management and Organization Department
    Minneapolis, MN. 55455 USA
    612 624 2812
    amarcus@umn.edu




    --
    Alfred A. Marcus
    Professor and Spencer Chair in Strategy and Technological Leadership
    University of Minnesota
    Carlson School of Management
    Strategic Management and Organization Department
    Minneapolis, MN. 55455 USA
    612 624 2812
    amarcus@umn.edu
     



  • 13.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-12-2010 05:38
    It is a methodology for how to think about the future in multi-dimensional terms using classic literary narratives not as forecasting but as contingency planning.

    On Sun, Jul 11, 2010 at 11:20 AM, King, Andrew A. <Andrew.A.King@tuck.dartmouth.edu> wrote:

    Alfie,

     

    Can you give us a bit of a teaser?  What did you find interesting?

     

    A

     

    From: Organizations and the Natural Environment Discussion [mailto:ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU] On Behalf Of Alfred Marcus
    Sent: Saturday, July 10, 2010 11:05 PM


    To: ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
    Subject: Re: Tell me a story...

     

    For those interested in stories about the future take a look at my book Strategic Foresight
    Strategic Foresight

    A New Look at Scenarios


    Palgrave Macmillan, June 2009
    ISBN: 978-0-230-61172-6, ISBN10: 0-230-61172-9,
    6 1/8 x 9-1/4 inches, 228 pages,

     

    On Fri, Jul 9, 2010 at 9:30 AM, Montabon, Frank L [SCIS] <montabon@iastate.edu> wrote:

    Here is what the back of my envelope reads.  Feel free to post the odds of each happening.

     

    1.  The U.S. makes significant changes to its tax policies.  In particular, there is a shift toward consumption based taxes with the amount of the tax being determined by environmental impact.  Even more specifically, this would likely mean a federal sales tax based on carbon footprint.

    2.  China slowly and steadily increases its citizens' political freedom.

    3.  India – I am a bit stumped here.  Perhaps they increase their citizens' economic freedom?

    4.  Russia finds a way to institute the rule of law.

    5.  Brazil finds a way to safeguard its natural resources.

    6.  Clay Shirky turns out to be correct and people crowdsource to create and implement solutions to major social problems.

     

    -Frank Montabon

     

     

    On Thu, Jul 8, 2010 at 1:47 PM, King, Andrew A. <Andrew.A.King@tuck.dartmouth.edu> wrote:

    It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.  C02 didn't double.  Less than 5% of world species went extinct.  No world war or pandemic occurred.  Energy consumption and human population levels are falling gradually.  On average, human "happiness" is high. 

    How did it happen?

    A

    --
    Alfred A. Marcus
    Professor and Spencer Chair in Strategy and Technological Leadership
    University of Minnesota
    Carlson School of Management
    Strategic Management and Organization Department
    Minneapolis, MN. 55455 USA
    612 624 2812
    amarcus@umn.edu




    --
    Alfred A. Marcus
    Professor and Spencer Chair in Strategy and Technological Leadership
    University of Minnesota
    Carlson School of Management
    Strategic Management and Organization Department
    Minneapolis, MN. 55455 USA
    612 624 2812
    amarcus@umn.edu
     




    --
    Alfred A. Marcus
    Professor and Spencer Chair in Strategy and Technological Leadership
    University of Minnesota
    Carlson School of Management
    Strategic Management and Organization Department
    Minneapolis, MN. 55455 USA
    612 624 2812
    amarcus@umn.edu
     


  • 14.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-12-2010 09:12

    Looking back in his annual blog on new year's 2061, Walter Cronkite VI noted that the famous prognosticator commonly referred to only by his first name "Duncan" had gotten many predictions right.  But Wal-c, as  Mr. Cronkite liked to be called, noted that some of the causes of these changes remained clouded.  Storms, price rises, congestion, and innovation had all had their part in motivating global change, but other events both big and small had also been important.  At the top of his list, Wal-c put....

     

    A

     

    From: Organizations and the Natural Environment Discussion [mailto:ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU] On Behalf Of Duncan Duke
    Sent: Friday, July 09, 2010 12:33 PM
    To: ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
    Subject: Re: Tell me a story...

     

    It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.  C02 didn't double.  Less than 5% of world species went extinct.  No world war or pandemic occurred.  Energy consumption and human population levels are falling gradually.  On average, human "happiness" is high. 

     

    How did it happen?

     

    A

     

     

    A little dystopic, but here goes:

     

    CO2

    It didn't double, but it almost did. Weather patterns change, and extreme events become much more common. The developed world is more shocked by this and its people move back a little from the coasts; people in developing countries can't really see a difference in the disasters compared to what they suffered before. Oil prices continue to rise, interrupted by bouts of volatility, and the price finally aligns incentives for sustained clean tech development and energy conservation. Europe takes the lead in becoming carbon neutral (mostly through nuclear power as other clean tech can't shoulder the entire burden yet) and by 2050 is deploying technology/policy to become a carbon sink. China stops its  coal burning and goes mostly nuclear primarily in response to oil prices, but also to localized environmental disasters and degradation. The rest of the world buys smaller cars, more efficient air conditioners, etc. in response to high energy prices. Most cars are electric or hydrogen based but their numbers plateau as traffic jams across the globe become like those in Nairobi and Sao Paulo.  The US regains its position (lost for a while to China) as prime CO2 emitter; the country cannot implement meaningful energy reform until a second Katrina hits Miami and the president seizes the opportunity to declare "War on GHGs" – by 2060 the US is still not carbon neutral but Gore is canonized.

     

    Species extinction

    The rate of discoveries of new species is higher than that of known extinctions – but most new-to-science species are arthropods, fungi and bacteria. Higher order species, and apex predators in particular, show previously unheard of rates of extinction. Polar bears as well as all the great cats except Felis concolor are now found only in zoos and reserves. Africa's human population finally manages to fatally disrupt its ecoregions such as the Serengeti Plain, Rift Valley Lakes, and Okavango Delta. The Sahara keeps up eating the Sahel. Wild spaces in the US expand as the price of fertilizer rises and agricultural subsidies are gradually reduced. The Amazon, on the contrary continues to be converted to cropland as demand for soybean, corn, sugar cane biomass, etc. continue and northern countries cut production in response to high input prices, erratic weather, and short growing seasons.

    The bluefin tuna goes extinct, and 95% of existing ocean fisheries collapse – most of them beyond recovery. Seafood consumption is maintained at a much lower level via aquaculture, but the species consumed tend to be lower on the food chain.

     

    Consumption

    World income and consumption continues to rise, but the digital revolution drastically reduces its energy and material intensity. With rising incomes, lack of space, and increased education levels, ever-increasing proportions of the income are spent on "content", "experiences", and "services" (see smartphones for example). The poor in developing countries show "unnatural", non-Maslovian consumption patterns, as eager as their richer counterparts for certain entertainment services and digital technologies yet still living in enormous, crowded, dangerous, unhygienic shantytowns. Land use patterns and transportation networks in North America gradually start to shift towards the densities and clustering found elsewhere – Americans come to realize that large private lawns are simply wrong, and that lawn mowing  is not therapeutic.

     

    Happiness

    Most peoples' baseline happiness levels continue to be dictated mainly by cultural and social cohesion issues, with small "healthy, wealthy, and wise" countries performing the best. Areas of the world that manage to become peacefully regionalized, educated, and homogenized show bumps in happiness while persistent extreme poverty in Africa, and sunless winters in Russia keep the happiness index from heading higher. Continued migration to the large and wealthy countries, while spurring their economies, postpones their social integration and depresses their potential happiness.

    The development of a new soma, free of side-effects, enables the rich to achieve permanent medicated bliss, thus buoying the average.

    Marihuana gradually becomes legalized and mainstream across the US, organizational sociologists study in real time the emergence and definition of a new industry/institution.

    China wins the 2060 World Cup thus momentarily boosting a quarter of the world's population's happiness level.

     

    Saludos,

     

    Duncan Duke

     

    Duncan Duke | johnson school | cornell university | dod3@cornell.edu | 607.216.8550

     

     

     

     



  • 15.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-12-2010 10:03

    ... the sudden cessation of the Gulf Stream in 2016, caused by the complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet. This plunged Europe into an ice age, which even Russia's massive gas reserves, sold at extortionist prices, were unable to ameliorate for the half-billion freezing Europeans. This had massive geo-political and global financial implications that severely impacted the prevailing global (dis)order.

     

    ...?

     

    [but blogging in 2061? So early 21st century!]

     

    John

     

    -.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-

    Dr. John W. Selsky

    Associate Professor, Management

    College of Technology & Innovation

    University of South Florida Polytechnic

    3433 Winter Lake Road

    Lakeland, FL 33803  USA

    +1-863-667-7718; fax +1-863-667-7751

    jselsky@poly.usf.edu

    Associate Fellow, Institute for Science, Innovation & Society

    University of Oxford     www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/centres/insis/

    -.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-

     

    From: Organizations and the Natural Environment Discussion [mailto:ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU] On Behalf Of King, Andrew A.
    Sent: Monday, July 12, 2010 9:12 AM
    To: ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
    Subject: Re: Tell me a story...

     

    Looking back in his annual blog on new year's 2061, Walter Cronkite VI noted that the famous prognosticator commonly referred to only by his first name "Duncan" had gotten many predictions right.  But Wal-c, as  Mr. Cronkite liked to be called, noted that some of the causes of these changes remained clouded.  Storms, price rises, congestion, and innovation had all had their part in motivating global change, but other events both big and small had also been important.  At the top of his list, Wal-c put....

     

    A

     

    From: Organizations and the Natural Environment Discussion [mailto:ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU] On Behalf Of Duncan Duke
    Sent: Friday, July 09, 2010 12:33 PM
    To: ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
    Subject: Re: Tell me a story...

     

    It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.  C02 didn't double.  Less than 5% of world species went extinct.  No world war or pandemic occurred.  Energy consumption and human population levels are falling gradually.  On average, human "happiness" is high. 

     

    How did it happen?

     

    A

     

     

    A little dystopic, but here goes:

     

    CO2

    It didn't double, but it almost did. Weather patterns change, and extreme events become much more common. The developed world is more shocked by this and its people move back a little from the coasts; people in developing countries can't really see a difference in the disasters compared to what they suffered before. Oil prices continue to rise, interrupted by bouts of volatility, and the price finally aligns incentives for sustained clean tech development and energy conservation. Europe takes the lead in becoming carbon neutral (mostly through nuclear power as other clean tech can't shoulder the entire burden yet) and by 2050 is deploying technology/policy to become a carbon sink. China stops its  coal burning and goes mostly nuclear primarily in response to oil prices, but also to localized environmental disasters and degradation. The rest of the world buys smaller cars, more efficient air conditioners, etc. in response to high energy prices. Most cars are electric or hydrogen based but their numbers plateau as traffic jams across the globe become like those in Nairobi and Sao Paulo.  The US regains its position (lost for a while to China) as prime CO2 emitter; the country cannot implement meaningful energy reform until a second Katrina hits Miami and the president seizes the opportunity to declare "War on GHGs" – by 2060 the US is still not carbon neutral but Gore is canonized.

     

    Species extinction

    The rate of discoveries of new species is higher than that of known extinctions – but most new-to-science species are arthropods, fungi and bacteria. Higher order species, and apex predators in particular, show previously unheard of rates of extinction. Polar bears as well as all the great cats except Felis concolor are now found only in zoos and reserves. Africa's human population finally manages to fatally disrupt its ecoregions such as the Serengeti Plain, Rift Valley Lakes, and Okavango Delta. The Sahara keeps up eating the Sahel. Wild spaces in the US expand as the price of fertilizer rises and agricultural subsidies are gradually reduced. The Amazon, on the contrary continues to be converted to cropland as demand for soybean, corn, sugar cane biomass, etc. continue and northern countries cut production in response to high input prices, erratic weather, and short growing seasons.

    The bluefin tuna goes extinct, and 95% of existing ocean fisheries collapse – most of them beyond recovery. Seafood consumption is maintained at a much lower level via aquaculture, but the species consumed tend to be lower on the food chain.

     

    Consumption

    World income and consumption continues to rise, but the digital revolution drastically reduces its energy and material intensity. With rising incomes, lack of space, and increased education levels, ever-increasing proportions of the income are spent on "content", "experiences", and "services" (see smartphones for example). The poor in developing countries show "unnatural", non-Maslovian consumption patterns, as eager as their richer counterparts for certain entertainment services and digital technologies yet still living in enormous, crowded, dangerous, unhygienic shantytowns. Land use patterns and transportation networks in North America gradually start to shift towards the densities and clustering found elsewhere – Americans come to realize that large private lawns are simply wrong, and that lawn mowing  is not therapeutic.

     

    Happiness

    Most peoples' baseline happiness levels continue to be dictated mainly by cultural and social cohesion issues, with small "healthy, wealthy, and wise" countries performing the best. Areas of the world that manage to become peacefully regionalized, educated, and homogenized show bumps in happiness while persistent extreme poverty in Africa, and sunless winters in Russia keep the happiness index from heading higher. Continued migration to the large and wealthy countries, while spurring their economies, postpones their social integration and depresses their potential happiness.

    The development of a new soma, free of side-effects, enables the rich to achieve permanent medicated bliss, thus buoying the average.

    Marihuana gradually becomes legalized and mainstream across the US, organizational sociologists study in real time the emergence and definition of a new industry/institution.

    China wins the 2060 World Cup thus momentarily boosting a quarter of the world's population's happiness level.

     

    Saludos,

     

    Duncan Duke

     

    Duncan Duke | johnson school | cornell university | dod3@cornell.edu | 607.216.8550

     

     

     

     



  • 16.  Tell me a story...

    Posted 07-12-2010 16:43
    ... the collapse of the global credit markets circa 2011, which drastically
    reduced consumer consumption to more sustainable levels worldwide.


    Anita D. Bhappu, Ph.D.
    Associate Professor & Division Chair, Retailing & Consumer Sciences
    Research Fellow, Terry J. Lundgren Center for Retailing
    Norton School of Family & Consumer Sciences
    The University of Arizona
    650 N. Park Avenue
    P.O. Box 210078
    Tucson, AZ 85721
    Phone: (520) 621-5948
    Fax: (520) 621-9445
    Email: abhappu@email.arizona.edu


    Quoting "King, Andrew A." <Andrew.A.King@TUCK.DARTMOUTH.EDU>:

    > Looking back in his annual blog on new year's 2061, Walter Cronkite
    > VI noted that the famous prognosticator commonly referred to only by
    > his first name "Duncan" had gotten many predictions right. But
    > Wal-c, as Mr. Cronkite liked to be called, noted that some of the
    > causes of these changes remained clouded. Storms, price rises,
    > congestion, and innovation had all had their part in motivating
    > global change, but other events both big and small had also been
    > important. At the top of his list, Wal-c put....
    >
    > A
    >
    > From: Organizations and the Natural Environment Discussion
    > [mailto:ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU] On Behalf Of Duncan Duke
    > Sent: Friday, July 09, 2010 12:33 PM
    > To: ONE-L@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
    > Subject: Re: Tell me a story...
    >
    > It is 2060, and somehow the world has been made more sustainable.
    > C02 didn't double. Less than 5% of world species went extinct. No
    > world war or pandemic occurred. Energy consumption and human
    > population levels are falling gradually. On average, human
    > "happiness" is high.
    >
    > How did it happen?
    >
    > A
    >
    >
    > A little dystopic, but here goes:
    >
    > CO2
    > It didn't double, but it almost did. Weather patterns change, and
    > extreme events become much more common. The developed world is more
    > shocked by this and its people move back a little from the coasts;
    > people in developing countries can't really see a difference in the
    > disasters compared to what they suffered before. Oil prices continue
    > to rise, interrupted by bouts of volatility, and the price finally
    > aligns incentives for sustained clean tech development and energy
    > conservation. Europe takes the lead in becoming carbon neutral
    > (mostly through nuclear power as other clean tech can't shoulder the
    > entire burden yet) and by 2050 is deploying technology/policy to
    > become a carbon sink. China stops its coal burning and goes mostly
    > nuclear primarily in response to oil prices, but also to localized
    > environmental disasters and degradation. The rest of the world buys
    > smaller cars, more efficient air conditioners, etc. in response to
    > high energy prices. Most cars are electric or hydrogen based but
    > their numbers plateau as traffic jams across the globe become like
    > those in Nairobi and Sao Paulo. The US regains its position (lost
    > for a while to China) as prime CO2 emitter; the country cannot
    > implement meaningful energy reform until a second Katrina hits Miami
    > and the president seizes the opportunity to declare "War on GHGs" -
    > by 2060 the US is still not carbon neutral but Gore is canonized.
    >
    > Species extinction
    > The rate of discoveries of new species is higher than that of known
    > extinctions - but most new-to-science species are arthropods, fungi
    > and bacteria. Higher order species, and apex predators in particular,
    > show previously unheard of rates of extinction. Polar bears as well
    > as all the great cats except Felis concolor are now found only in
    > zoos and reserves. Africa's human population finally manages to
    > fatally disrupt its ecoregions such as the Serengeti Plain, Rift
    > Valley Lakes, and Okavango Delta. The Sahara keeps up eating the
    > Sahel. Wild spaces in the US expand as the price of fertilizer rises
    > and agricultural subsidies are gradually reduced. The Amazon, on the
    > contrary continues to be converted to cropland as demand for soybean,
    > corn, sugar cane biomass, etc. continue and northern countries cut
    > production in response to high input prices, erratic weather, and
    > short growing seasons.
    > The bluefin tuna goes extinct, and 95% of existing ocean fisheries
    > collapse - most of them beyond recovery. Seafood consumption is
    > maintained at a much lower level via aquaculture, but the species
    > consumed tend to be lower on the food chain.
    >
    > Consumption
    > World income and consumption continues to rise, but the digital
    > revolution drastically reduces its energy and material intensity.
    > With rising incomes, lack of space, and increased education levels,
    > ever-increasing proportions of the income are spent on "content",
    > "experiences", and "services" (see smartphones for example). The poor
    > in developing countries show "unnatural", non-Maslovian consumption
    > patterns, as eager as their richer counterparts for certain
    > entertainment services and digital technologies yet still living in
    > enormous, crowded, dangerous, unhygienic shantytowns. Land use
    > patterns and transportation networks in North America gradually start
    > to shift towards the densities and clustering found elsewhere -
    > Americans come to realize that large private lawns are simply wrong,
    > and that lawn mowing is not therapeutic.
    >
    > Happiness
    > Most peoples' baseline happiness levels continue to be dictated
    > mainly by cultural and social cohesion issues, with small "healthy,
    > wealthy, and wise" countries performing the best. Areas of the world
    > that manage to become peacefully regionalized, educated, and
    > homogenized show bumps in happiness while persistent extreme poverty
    > in Africa, and sunless winters in Russia keep the happiness index
    > from heading higher. Continued migration to the large and wealthy
    > countries, while spurring their economies, postpones their social
    > integration and depresses their potential happiness.
    > The development of a new soma, free of side-effects, enables the rich
    > to achieve permanent medicated bliss, thus buoying the average.
    > Marihuana gradually becomes legalized and mainstream across the US,
    > organizational sociologists study in real time the emergence and
    > definition of a new industry/institution.
    > China wins the 2060 World Cup thus momentarily boosting a quarter of
    > the world's population's happiness level.
    >
    > Saludos,
    >
    > Duncan Duke
    >
    > Duncan Duke | johnson school | cornell university | dod3@cornell.edu
    > | 607.216.8550